The Red Jackal

The Modern Day Sudentenland Situation

continued from previous article…

Ukrainians’ disappointment with Yushchenko and Tymoshchenko led to Yanukovych to win the election in 2010. In his tenure, he gradually shifted from a pro-democracy western philosophy to more of an authoritarian Pro-Russia one. In 2014, Yanukovych rejected the notion of establishing more EU ties which triggered outrage from the more pro-democracy Ukrainian faction . After 100 protestors were killed by government forces at the Maidan, protests swelled to a point in which Yanukovych fled to Russia and was removed from power in absentia.

Fearing that Russia could lose its influence in Ukraine, Putin annexed Crimea and sent in a mercenary army (so it would not be associated with the Russian Military) to fight in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. These were probing missions as I believe Putin would see what the West would do and probably got the result he expected: the West basically did nothing. Sure there were some sanctions but in the end, nothing really happened. Again, Putin plays the long game as expects the West will get bored of the conflict and move on.

With this conflict in a stalemate from 2014 to 2022, Putin saw his chance to bring Ukraine back into the fold with the election of Joe Biden. The Russians most likely have a file on President Biden who for 50 years talked tough but when confronted would cower. This coupled with the biggest group of feckless Western leaders the world has ever seen, Putin took action. Assuming that his intelligence agencies reports were correct, Putin declared a “special operation” and expected this to be over in a couple of days. Of course, the intelligence he received was flawed as he was told what he wanted to hear: the Ukrainian army was weak and that the Russians would be welcomed with open arms. But what he did know is that the Ukrainian army had made significant strides since 2014 and had become a formidable army.

Where Ukraine showed fight though, the US bungled under the Biden administration. Leading up to the invasion, the US did very little to deter the Russians from invading. Even after the current invasion, the US balked at tough sanctions and even supplying Ukraine with the state of the art weaponry. The US was not the only country that dithered, the Germans for weeks refused any banking sanctions and French do what they normal do; talk with no action. These were key delays as once Russia went in, only total victory would suffice for Putin. This means all of Ukraine and at all costs.

Biden (as well as France and Germany) did start to supply better weapons but the US was always too late when acting. When Ukraine made its Kharkiv offensive in late 2022 and Russia was back on its heels, US held Ukraine back. The US wanted a stalemate so a negotiated peace agreement could be reached and really did not want Ukraine to win the war. This allowed Russia to not only regroup, but heavily fortify their positions to where we are today which is basically a stalemate.

So back to the beginning when I asked is this today’s modern day Sudentenland situation? That if we give Putin what he has now, the war will end and we will “have peace in our time”. President Trump’s frequent comments that almost seemed like he was blaming Zelensky more than Putin has further emboldened Putin to continue his ambitious plan to take back what was once the Soviet Union. But if we learn from history, dictators are never satisfied and will take all that is given to them and then some. Hitler said he just wanted the Sudentenland, and then next thing you know he is invading Poland.

How does this end? This all depends on the backbone and determination of the West. Trump seems to awaken to the fact that Putin is in no hurry for peace, and has decided to re-arm Ukraine through NATO. Moreover, he is also threatening not only sanctions on Russia, but tariffs on any country that does business with Russia. If this scares China and India, the Russian economy could crash.

With NATO re-arming Ukraine, this might be cause for alarm in Russia. Russia has launched its summer offensive which has been ineffective. The fact that Russia is hemorrhaging soldiers and equipment, one begins to wonder how much longer Putin will push forward. It has been estimated that Russia has suffered over a million casualties but this will not deter Putin. Russian military philosophy has not changed much from the war with Napoleon and the Nazis, just keep sending men forward until the other side runs out of bullets.

What does the West need to do? They need to show a united front with not only military supplies but sanctions as well. Though Russia has a numbers advantage, his army is showing strains from the immense loss of soldiers. Even if you do not believe in the one million casualty numbers, his army has shown its losses as it needs soldiers from Africa and North Korea to fill his meat grinder assaults. The soldiers that Russia still has domestically, are not really soldiers as they are either people they yank off the street or prisoners that are promised freedom if they fight. Most of the “soldiers” in these two groups get a couple of days of training and then sent to the front as sacrificial lambs: if the Ukrainians don’t get them, there own people will shoot them if there is an unauthorized retreat.

In addition to military support and sanctions, the West needs to isolate Russia from the rest of world which includes banning them from all sporting and World economical events. For sports currently, the punishment in that Russian participants can compete but not under a Russian flag/anthem is a joke. The IOC is trying to show that they are doing something but it only shows that they have no courage to do what is necessary.

Russia can be defeated but not solely by military action. Russia needs to feel the pressure from within like what happened to the Soviet Union in the early nineties with Afghanistan. Without internal pressure, Putin will let five million of his own soldiers die to achieve his objectives as life means nothing to him. What will concern him is internal pressure and threats to his power, as when Prighozin marched towards Moscow, Putin took off.

The west needs to hold firm if there is a peace deal not giving Russia all it wants. I can imagine the terms in which Putin will demand full NATO pull out of former Soviet countries, an election in Ukraine that will favor Russia and so on. The demands will be to the point that Putin knows the west will never accept so he can blame the west for continuing war.

There are those in Russia that want a full declaration of war but Putin knows this will not work. As long as the populations of Moscow and St. Petersburgh are not affected, Putin can continue. Once these populations are brought into the war, Putin and his cronies will fear an open revolt like in the early 90’s, so the “special operation” will continue as is. Putin also knows that a peace deal in which Russia keeps what they have won in the last couple of years would be the defeat of the image of the “mighty” Russian army: this would look like a defeat rather than a victory. We all know what happens to Russian leaders in defeat, they tend to fall off balconies.

So the West must carry its resolve and see this to the end and show a unified front. Putin will still play the long game and hope that the West lose interest and then make his move again. Putin has been planning his Ukraine take over for decades and will be emboldened when he sees cracks in the Wests’ resolve. Only when the pressure starts to build in Russia and the people revolt will this war will end and hopefully along with the regime .