The Red Jackal

Peace on the Horizon?

I was going to write about something else this week as I had talked about Ukraine in a couple of previous articles, however with recent developments in the past couple of weeks in the Ukraine-Russian war, I thought I would go back to this. Plus it was Ukrainian Independence Day yesterday (Aug. 24th), so I thought it was apropos to discuss the situation again.

As everyone knows, a couple of weeks ago there was a summit in Alaska between President Putin and President Trump. The hope was that this summit would facilitate a cease fire in the near term and in the long term a peace agreement between the two countries. What appears to have happened though was publicity coup from Putin as this brought him, and Russia, legitimacy as no respectable leader would be seen with him in the past three years since the invasion began.

I commend President Trump for trying to solve this conflict. Immediately after the Alaska summit, he brought in major European leaders along with Volodymyr Zelenskyy from Ukraine to discuss a peace process. All agreed to a framework to a peace deal which included some cessation of land to Russia. There was even talk of a potential meeting between both Zelenskyy and Putin within the next couple of weeks so there was a glimmer of hope that this war could end. Putin’s response to this meeting? Russia launched its biggest missile and drone attack in the past year.

Putin has no desire for peace and this is for multiple reasons: apathy from the West, the failure to grab land, and the Russian war time economy. With regards to apathy from the West, history has shown the US along with Western Europe, has a short term attention span. Putin is counting on this and has seen this over the past year as the war approaches its 4th year as there is “fatigue” from western leaders about the war. He is hoping the longer the war goes on, the most likely support will fade for Ukraine.

A second reason has to do with the Russian economy. Russia’s main industry as everyone knows is petroleum. However, with the war, most of this has been cut-off from Europe directly. I say directly as Russia still ships to China and India using ghost ships, the latter who refines it and then sells to Europe. But as the price of oil has dropped along with Russia having to sell at a discount price, Russia needs another revenue stream. The war time economy provides this but if the war was to end, the Russian economy could implode which could lead to civil unrest so it is beneficial to continue the war.

Lastly, the failure to conquer all of the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts is an embarrassment to the Russian establishment’s hubris of the strength of the Russian army. For three years, Russia has made some gains but they are insignificant and have come at a great loss of life to the Russian reserves. It is why Putin has demanded that Ukraine cede the rest of the two aforementioned Oblasts’ remaining territories; these are heavily fortified and Russia has not been able to break the defenses. This way if these territories are given to Russia, the heavy fortifications will be bypassed and this way his next invasion of Ukraine will be easier.

So again, what to do? Putin’s actions show he has no interest in peace. During the summit, Russian forces broke through and “captured” Pokrovsk so Putin probably thought why stop after this breakthrough. But this victory was short lived: The Azov unit from Ukraine responded and basically wiped out the Russian unit and recaptured the town. Moreover, more Ukrainian offensives have not only recaptured this land but have pushed Russian forces back to their positions they held over a month ago.

Not only does Putin not have any interest in peace, history has shown he does not honor any agreements as Russia has broken every one over the past 15 years. Putin, and even some analysts from the West, believe that they have infinite reserves but is that really the truth? It is estimated that there is a 10 Russian to 1 Ukrainian death rate on the battle field so as this war goes on this is not sustainable for Russia. It is not great for Ukraine either as they have less reserves than Russia but we know that there is anecdotal evidence that Russia does not have these unlimited reserves. If this was the case, why does Russia need soldiers from North Korea and Africa? The simple answer is that the meat grinder assaults that Russia has used has taken a significant toll on their reserves.

In addition to the losses, the moral and will of the Russian army is not great. The Azov unit captured several Russian soldiers and interviewed them which can be found on YouTube on Azov TV. In the interviews soldiers described that they had no desire to be there and don’t even understand why they are fighting Ukraine. Other soldiers said they were lied to as they were told they would provide support but where sent to the front lines instead. One soldier said he was basically kidnapped and forced to serve and if he could, would join the Russian battalion that is fighting on Ukraine’s behalf. (other good channels on YouTube are RFU news and Denys Davidov).

But it is not just the low level soldiers for Russia that want to get out of the war as there was story that came out about the 83rd Seperate Guards Air Assault Brigade. It was found out that within this elite Russian unit, their own soldiers were shooting each other to get out of the war. There was also a corruption part to this story but these soldiers, probably to the surprise of the Russian establishment, are tired of this war. The mixture of a side that does not want to fight and does so by fear is ripe for defeat by a side that is determined to win.

So how can the west win? First Trump needs to forget this dialogue with Putin; it is pointless and a waste a time. Like all dictators with no accountability at home, they do not negotiate unless your foot is on their neck and they have no other option but to negotiate. In addition, Trump needs someone that has negotiation experience on the World stage. Steve Witkoff I am sure is a very intelligent person but he is a lawyer and real estate agent and international conflicts are not exactly his milieu. I would rather see a person like Mike Pompeo who has decades of experience dealing with these conflicts.

Second, the West must continue to arm Ukraine. I know there is concern about sending money as corruption is still an issue but weapons (especially air defense systems) are essential. I think Trump handled this brilliantly by selling weapons to European countries and then these countries send them to Ukraine ensures that the US is not solely funding the Ukrainian defense. Part of the end negotiations though should be a European army there to deter future aggression as any peace time, Russia will use to regroup and then come up with another false flag to continue their conquest of Ukraine.

Third, the West must isolate the country which means banning them from any world economic or sporting events. I had mentioned it previously the idea of letting Russians participate in sporting events such as the Olympics under a neutral flag does nothing but virtue signal from the international elite that run these organizations. This also means banning athletes from the sports leagues such as the NHL, and tennis associations and other world sporting events. There should be no glorification through sports for this country.

Lastly, and this will be the hardest part, putting sanctions on countries that do business with Russia. The two biggest of course are India and China. Trump has already hinted at doing this but will he follow through? India is not such a big deal as we will probably just lose a bunch of call centers with people named “Dave” and ” Joe” but China will be difficult. With such economic ties between the China and the US and punishment against China may be reciprocal on the US.

I am probably one of the few people that think Ukraine can win this war. They might not get everything back from their 1992 border but they can force Russia to the table in which the “special operation” will be considered a failure. This cannot be done solely through military action, as economic pressure can be just as effective. In the end though, the west, and especially Trump need to realize that Putin is only stalling and they need to show unity against Russia. Once the pressure is overwhelming, Putin will have to come to the table.

Slava Ukraini!